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Tensions over Taiwan threaten to grow into a strategic crisis, amid the background of a deteriorating relationship between China and the United States - Brendan Taylor's new Adelphi book explores the potential triggers for a conflict over Taiwan and calls for the development of robust crisis-management mechanisms to avoid escalation.
This collection of historical case studies examines what enabled close US-Soviet non-proliferation cooperation during the Cold War and how this earlier experience can be meaningfully applied to reviving US-Russia non-proliferation engagement today.
The book explores South Africa s complex and difficult relationship with Africa in the post-apartheid era where South Africa has struggled to translate its economic, military and diplomatic weight into tangible foreign policy successes and enduring influence on the ground.
Fighting armed groups is an uncertain business, and so is negotiating. Doing both alternately, concurrently or selectively, is highly demanding. This book develops a framework to help analysts and policymakers understand the challenges of using a combination of coercion and diplomacy in dealing with armed groups. It considers which complexities have proved most inhibiting, and which have been worked around. What are the obvious traps that states fall into? What appear to be the smarter moves?
Lucie Beraud-Sudreau is a Senior Researcher and Director of the Arms and Military Expenditure Programme at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Sweden; former IISS Research Fellow for Defence Economics and Procurement (2016-20)
First Published in 2005. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an informa company.
This book argues that Donald Trump's withdrawal from the JCPOA was a grave mistake, as the accord was a significant diplomatic achievement that usefully curtailed Iran's nuclear programme, and Iran was honouring its commitments under the deal.
This study highlights the importance of seeing globalisation in political terms, while providing a new security perspective on globalisation and discussing NATO as a risk community.
A paper that explains how Iran has developed its nuclear programme to the point where it threatens to achieve a weapons capability within a short time frame, and analyses Western policy responses aimed at forestalling that capability.
Provides an understanding of the evolution of strategic thinking since the Adelphi Papers began during the Cold War.
Like all other terrorist movements, al-Qaeda will end. While it has traits that exploit and reflect the international context, it is not utterly without precedent: some aspects of al-Qaeda are unusual, but many are not. This paper explains five typical strategies of terrorism and why Western thinkers fail to grasp them.
Charts the evolution of the security environment in Afghanistan since the fall of the Taliban, assessing both the causes of insecurity and the responses to them. This paper offers suggestions on how to tackle Afghanistan's security crisis.
Chikahito Harada assesses the reasons for Russia's policy towards North-East Asia and offers key policy recommendations.
First Published in 2005. How should the 'problem of order' associated with weapons of mass destrcution be understood and addressed today? Has 9/11 rendered redundant past international ordering strategies, or these still discarded at our own peril? These are questions explored in this Adelphi Paper.
Climate change has been a key factor in the rise and fall of societies and states from prehistory to the recent fighting in the Sudanese state of Darfur. The countries which will face increased risk are not necessarily the most fragile, nor those which will suffer the greatest physical effects of climate change.
Analyses the decision to give up the quest for nuclear weapons, focusing on the main factors that influenced the Gadhafi regime's calculations. This work explores the process of dismantling the nuclear programme and the question of whether Libya constitutes a 'model' for addressing the challenges posed by other proliferators.
Provides a detailed examination of economic and political change in Syria and Syria's position in the Middle East. The author has a wide and in-depth knowledge of Syria, which has been gained from first-hand experience of its political scene and demonstrated in his previously published works.
Unique collection of expert analyses on post-Sadam Iraq.
Published in 2000 to coincide with the first anniversary of the end of the Kosovo campaign in June 1999. Offers one of the most comprehensive independent assessments to date of that campaign, and of the performance of the NATO allies. An important subject area in which there is a great deal of international interest.
A critical reassessment of Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs) as an effective diplomatic tool in the post-Cold War period.
Places the experiences and reactions of small arms-producing states in a global context. Describes the global rationalization and internationalization of armaments production and the emergence of a potentially revolutionary future for the development of the industry.
This Paper argues that prevailing in the `war¿ on terror, much like victory in the Cold War, entails containment, deterrence, outperformance and engagement. Military power is secondary to intelligence, law enforcement, enlightened social policy and diplomacy
Debates about military influence on civilian government tend to be partisan and rarely pay sufficient attention to specific contexts. This paper analyses, without condemnation or justification, why and how the military exercises such influence in Turkey and whether it is likely to continue to do so. It argues that the role of the military in Turkey grows out of a specific Turkish context and is more a symptom than a cause of the country's flawed democracy. It examines the Turkish officer ethos, particularly the role of the indigenous ideology of Kemalism, and the broad, though not universal, public mandate for an interventionist role in politics. It contends that the military's influence is neither uniform nor total and that it is more effective at blocking than initiating policy; thus creating a system in which civilian authority is primary rather than supreme. It analyses the mechanisms through which the military attempts to shape policy, and demonstrates how its influence depends more on its informal authority than legislated rights or responsibilities. The paper suggests that fears of threats to national security resulting from the reforms required for EU accession have made the military more, not less, reluctant to withdraw from the political arena. It concludes that, regardless of the future of Turkey's candidacy, such a withdrawal will be a slow and gradual process, dependent more on changes in Turkish social and political culture and the perceived security environment than in the military itself.
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