Bøker av Peter Turchin

End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration is a compelling piece of literature penned by the brilliant Peter Turchin. This book, published by PENGUIN PR on June 13, 2023, delves deep into the world of politics, offering a unique perspective on the path of political disintegration. The book is an intriguing exploration of the power dynamics between elites and counter-elites, and the subsequent impact on the political landscape. Turchin masterfully weaves a narrative that is both insightful and thought-provoking, making it a must-read for anyone interested in political science. This book is a testament to Turchin's ability to analyze complex political scenarios and present them in an accessible format. Published by the renowned PENGUIN PR, this book is sure to be a valuable addition to your library.

Taking up the problem of territorial dynamics - why some polities at certain times expand and at other times contract - this book shows that a similar research program can advance our understanding of dynamical processes in history. It investigates the dynamics predicted by the models, and contrasts model predictions with empirical patterns.

Many historical processes exhibit recurrent patterns of change. Century-long periods of population expansion come before long periods of stagnation and decline; the dynamics of prices mirror population oscillations; and states go through strong expansionist phases followed by periods of state failure, endemic sociopolitical instability, and territorial loss. Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov explore the dynamics and causal connections between such demographic, economic, and political variables in agrarian societies and offer detailed explanations for these long-term oscillations--what the authors call secular cycles. Secular Cycles elaborates and expands upon the demographic-structural theory first advanced by Jack Goldstone, which provides an explanation of long-term oscillations. This book tests that theory's specific and quantitative predictions by tracing the dynamics of population numbers, prices and real wages, elite numbers and incomes, state finances, and sociopolitical instability. Turchin and Nefedov study societies in England, France, and Russia during the medieval and early modern periods, and look back at the Roman Republic and Empire. Incorporating theoretical and quantitative history, the authors examine a specific model of historical change and, more generally, investigate the utility of the dynamical systems approach in historical applications. An indispensable and groundbreaking resource for a wide variety of social scientists, Secular Cycles will interest practitioners of economic history, historical sociology, complexity studies, and demography.