The Hype Cycle

The media and the politicians are always screaming at usabout horrifying, end-of-the-world threats, and also about miraculous newtechnologies that will save us and transform our lives.  These are the two types of Hype-Fear Hype andHope Hype.  They work together tobefuddle our minds and keep us on edge. Both forms of Hype, according to Arnold Schelsky are overblown, exaggerated to the nth degree, and scientificallyworthless. Climate change does not threaten us with extinction, machines cannever conspire against their human creators-and on the other hand, "globalgovernance" cannot solve any of our serious problems, while most of themiraculous expectations for quantum physics are scientific nonsense. AI is a focus of both types of Hype, with provablyfalse predictions that machines will be able to think and create, provablyfalse predictions that machines will replace employees causing massunemployment, and provably false predictions that machines can conceivepurposes or intentions hostile to humans. Fear Hypejustifies the move toward a permanent state of emergency while Hope Hypetitillates us with wild dreams which can never be realized. The political result is a system Schelsky calls "neo-feudalism."  Thepsychological result is a rapid oscillation between extreme, unwarranted Fearand extreme, unwarranted expectations of salvation and bliss. In thelife of any animal, overactivity is short-lived and restricted to emergencysituations. No living being can sustain overactivity for longer periods withoutself-harm.  Hype is a form of toxicoveractivity of entire societies.  Todaythe West is in an accelerated Hype Cycle, hyping ourselves from one peak ofexcitement to the next. Valuesconducive to the Hype Cycle have been developing in the West since the1920s.  Schelsky favors renewedemphasis on pre-1920s values. Arnold Schelsky lives in Germany and frequently visits the United States.  He is a medical doctor, scientist, andentrepreneur, who now runs his own AI company and never exaggerates the meritsof his products.